Convex Arbitrage

Tail-positive strategies across domains.
Identifying asymmetric opportunities where downside is bounded and upside remains open.

Filter:
17 articles
Receiver Saturation, Attention Fatigue, and Stress-Relaxation Masking Observed Across CFD, Optical Interpretation, and Thermo-Mechanical Models

Receiver Saturation, Attention Fatigue, and Stress-Relaxation Masking Observed Across CFD, Optical Interpretation, and Thermo-Mechanical Models

Convex ArbitrageEmbera Systems

Embera Field Report documenting three empirically observed behaviors identified during Automation Run #90. Each behavior was derived from actual simulation runs: receiver-side saturation and masking under sustained exposure across CFD, optical interpretation, and thermo-mechanical domains.

January 19, 202614 min read
From Emergent Behavior to Governable Systems

From Emergent Behavior to Governable Systems

Convex Arbitrage

Closing the Gap Between Simulation Power and Operational Trust. Modern engineering organizations can simulate almost anything. Yet despite this power, a familiar problem keeps surfacing: The simulation works — until it matters.

January 18, 202614 min read
Why Street Turns Are No Longer an Optimization — They're a Labor Strategy

Why Street Turns Are No Longer an Optimization — They're a Labor Strategy

Convex Arbitrage

In a market where qualified driver labor is structurally constrained, street turns are no longer about efficiency. They are about preserving human capacity inside a system that no longer has slack.

January 18, 20268 min read
Preventing "Mass SOS Day"

Preventing "Mass SOS Day"

Convex Arbitrage

Recent nationwide cellular outages demonstrate a structural failure mode in modern telecom architecture. This article introduces a tessellated network architecture that replaces single-core dependency with local closure, quorum identity, and bounded fallback operation.

January 18, 202612 min read
Convex Arbitrage in Simulation: Why Structure Ages Better Than Prediction

Convex Arbitrage in Simulation: Why Structure Ages Better Than Prediction

Convex Arbitrage

In physical systems, certain properties persist regardless of how finely we attempt to observe them. These are not artifacts of modeling choices. They are invariants. When validation ignores these constraints, it becomes retrospective and fragile.

January 18, 20269 min read
Louisiana Grid Siting Strategy Report

Louisiana Grid Siting Strategy Report

Convex Arbitrage

Actionable Parish Shortlist for Hyperscale, Industrial, and AI-Scale Loads (2026–2030). Author's lens: downstream operator + interconnection reality. This is not a marketing map; it's a build-order strategy.

January 18, 202610 min read

Why Empty Miles Are No Longer the Real Cost — Timing Is

Convex Arbitrage

What live terminal behavior is now revealing that most logistics networks still miss. For years, logistics optimization has focused on the same set of levers: reducing empty miles, improving asset utilization, tightening dispatch, and protecting margin through efficiency. Those still matter. But they're no longer where the biggest losses hide.

January 18, 20267 min read

Street Turns Are Not an Optimization — They Are a Structural Signal

Convex Arbitrage

Results from Daily Recursive Detection Across U.S. Terminals (November–Present). Since mid-November, we've been running a street-turn detection engine daily across multiple U.S. container terminals. The goal was not to model opportunity or forecast behavior, but to observe real reuse as it occurs.

January 18, 20268 min read

Why Malls Are Quietly One of the Best Data-Center Sites We Have

Convex Arbitrage

Most conversations about data centers start in the wrong place. They begin with land acquisition, greenfield builds, hyperscale campuses, or remote siting strategies. Meanwhile, one of the most utility-rich, structurally overbuilt, and underutilized building types in North America already exists—at scale. It's the suburban shopping mall.

January 18, 202610 min read
Empirical Validation of a Graded, Viscosity-Selective Manufacturing Floor

Empirical Validation of a Graded, Viscosity-Selective Manufacturing Floor

Convex ArbitrageEmbera Systems

We present an empirical computational validation of a graded, viscosity-selective manufacturing floor intended to localize hydrocarbon contamination while permitting water percolation. Using two-phase porous-media CFD in OpenFOAM v10, we demonstrate stable execution of a layered floor architecture under gravity-driven flow with strong viscosity contrast.

January 16, 202612 min read

When Contracting Becomes the Cleaner Option

Convex Arbitrage

Hiring remains the right answer for most roles. But some categories of work no longer fit that model — not because the work is less important, but because it is episodic, cross-functional, and interpretive.

January 16, 20266 min read

Stop Competing for Rare Earths. Compete in Production.

Convex Arbitrage

The current debate around rare earths is framed as a resource race: who controls supply, who can stockpile, who can choke exports first. That framing is already outdated. The real competition is not over materials. It's over who can produce function under constraint.

January 16, 20268 min read

Patterns Precede Sensors

Convex Arbitrage

Most modern sensing architectures are built on a quiet assumption: If we see enough, soon enough, we'll understand what's happening. That assumption is increasingly backwards. In complex systems, patterns emerge before sensors resolve them. Sensors don't create understanding; they confirm it.

January 16, 20265 min read

A Guide to Buyback Gains — Without Buybacks

Convex Arbitrage

How Low-Marginal IP Outperforms Capital Returns Under Production Constraints. When capital is forced back into production, the question is not whether shareholder value can still be created. It's whether firms understand where value actually compounds.

January 16, 20267 min read

When Sensors Multiply, It's Usually a Geometry Problem

Convex Arbitrage

Modern sensing stacks are expensive for a reason — but it isn't the one most people think. The proliferation of sensors didn't happen because engineers were careless. It happened because geometry has never been allowed to carry certainty on its own. When geometry isn't trusted, systems compensate by adding viewpoints.

January 15, 20266 min read
48–96 Hour Action Window

48–96 Hour Action Window

Convex Arbitrage

Over the next 48–96 hours, terminals and fleets that delay empty returns and prioritize local reuse will outperform by $75–$220 per container move relative to baseline contracts.

January 9, 20268 min read
Fenway Tail Arbitrage — Target Board

Fenway Tail Arbitrage — Target Board

SportsBaseballBoston Red Sox

Market-undervalued, CBT-fit profiles evaluated on run-value impact in failure states. Players ranked by tail suppression behavior at Fenway, not peak outcomes.

December 24, 20258 min read
Talk with Us