Street Turns Are Not an Optimization — They Are a Structural Signal
Results from Daily Recursive Detection Across U.S. Terminals (November–Present)
Since mid-November, we've been running a street-turn detection engine daily across multiple U.S. container terminals. The goal was not to model opportunity or forecast behavior, but to observe real reuse as it occurs, including how it propagates across terminals and regions once timing pressure shifts.
What follows is a factual update on what the system has identified so far — and why these findings matter beyond freight operations.
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What We Set Out to Measure
Street turns are often discussed as an operational efficiency tactic: reusing an import container directly for export without returning it to a depot.
That framing misses the larger signal.
- Observed reuse events, not theoretical matches
- Timing compression, not reported participation
- Recursive effects, not single-lane optimization
In other words: when reuse happens naturally under pressure, what does it displace, and how far does the effect travel?
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Methodology (Brief) - Observation window: Mid-November to present - Runtime: Daily - Coverage: Multi-terminal, multi-region U.S. ports - Detection basis: - Import–export timing compression - Depot bypass indicators - Cross-terminal availability shifts - Exclusions: - Self-reported carrier data - Hypothetical match modeling
This is a signal dataset, not a census.
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Aggregate Results to Date
- Street turns identified: ~240–310
- Distinct terminals covered: 19
- Regions observed: West Coast, Gulf, Southeast, Northeast
These are confirmed or highly probable reuse events identified through timing behavior — not estimates of what could happen.
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Regional Distribution (Approximate) - West Coast: ~105–130 - Gulf: ~45–55 - Southeast: ~55–70 - Northeast: ~35–45
- Export demand is asymmetric
- Depot congestion exists
- Chassis availability is constrained
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Recursive Street Turns (The Non-Obvious Finding)
A significant portion of reuse events do not stop at one container.
- Recursive multi-leg events: ~65–85
- Average legs per chain: ~2.2–2.6
- Maximum observed chain: 4 legs
- Primary clusters: Southern California, Savannah, Houston
This is where most street-turn discussions fall short. The value is not the first reuse — it's the propagation.
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Deadhead Miles Removed (Conservative)
- Avoided empty move: 42–55 miles
- Recursive chains: 1.8 avoided moves on average
- No emissions multipliers applied
- Direct reuse: ~10,500–13,500 miles
- Recursive effects: ~6,800–9,200 miles
- Total avoided empty miles: ~17,300–22,700 miles
This is physical mileage removed, not modeled efficiency gain.
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Why This Matters Beyond Logistics
Street turns are not merely an operational tactic — they are a pressure signal.
- Timing pressure is forcing reuse earlier and more frequently
- Empty availability shifts laterally across terminals
- Local decisions propagate regionally within days
- The system reprices through time, not price
- Capital allocators
- Insurers
- Advisors
- Infrastructure planners
The earliest impact is not margin collapse — it is loss of optionality.
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What This Is Not
- Total market street-turn volume
- Carrier participation rates
- System-wide optimization
They represent observed behavior under pressure, captured consistently over time.
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Closing
Street turns are often treated as a cost-saving tactic.
What the data shows instead is something more important: they are an early indicator of where system pressure is forcing adaptation.
Once reuse becomes recursive, the system is already repricing.
And by the time that repricing reaches financial statements, it's no longer early.