Public Newsletter

AI produces Jevons-style output expansion. It may not produce the durable human labor absorption that historically turned efficiency gains into employment renewal. The mechanism, the measurement, and the test.

The oil shock is not a price story. It is a duration story. When trade routes lengthen, balance sheets tighten — before CPI, before spread levels, before Fed minutes. This issue maps three converging shocks most analysts are treating as separate.