Sports Arbitrage

Tail-positive player evaluation and roster construction.
Identifying market-undervalued profiles through failure-state analysis.

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Fenway Tail Arbitrage — Target Board

BaseballBoston Red Sox

Market-undervalued, CBT-fit profiles evaluated on run-value impact in failure states. Players ranked by tail suppression behavior at Fenway, not peak outcomes.

December 24, 2025•8 min read