Scope
Every market participant is swimming in information. Very few are looking at condition. The World Stat Sheet is a structured, repeatable read on sovereign strength. Twelve metrics. One composite. Updated monthly. Scored 0–100 so movement is visible, not buried. It tracks the forces that actually move capital. ⸻ ## The Framework The sheet splits the world into two layers: cyclical pressure and structural capacity. ### Cyclical Core — 60% of composite These determine near-term velocity. **GROW** Manufacturing expansion versus contraction. A clean read on production momentum and demand pulse. **PRCE** Inflation stability. Not whether inflation is high or low, but whether it is controlled and predictable. **CRED** Financing conditions. Sovereign rate structure as a proxy for funding ease or tightening pressure. **FX** Currency stability. Volatility and directional stress transmit quickly into margins and capital flows. When growth rises with stable prices and manageable funding, expansion compounds. When growth rises while funding tightens, volatility builds. When inflation destabilizes before growth slows, stress migrates. ⸻ ### Structural Core — 40% of composite These define durability. **ENRG** Energy independence and resilience to external shocks. **SHIP** Supply chain friction and trade exposure. **MAKE** Industrial depth. The ability to produce critical inputs domestically. **TECH** Innovation velocity and forward productivity potential. **RULE** Policy and regulatory predictability. **VIBE** Internal cohesion and demand confidence. **SAFE** Security stability. **CLIM** Climate exposure and adaptation readiness. Structural metrics move slower, but they determine ceilings. Cyclical strength without structural depth fades. Structural depth without cyclical momentum stalls.
What Changed
## January 2026 Results ### Tier One — Balanced Strength **India — Rank 1 (73)** Strong manufacturing momentum. Stable inflation regime. Manageable funding conditions. Structural trajectory remains upward. Demographic and capex tailwinds intact. **United States — Rank 2 (72)** Growth reaccelerating. Inflation stabilizing. Energy advantage durable. Technology leadership remains the decisive structural lever. Institutional friction is visible but not yet destabilizing. **South Korea — Rank 3 (71)** Price stability strong. Industrial and semiconductor depth high. Export cycle stabilizing. These are expansion environments. ⸻ ### Tier Two — Stable Platforms Poland, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, United Kingdom cluster in the low-to-mid 60s. Inflation normalization improving positioning. Credit manageable. Structural capacity intact. Growth moderate but steady. These are selective deployment markets. ⸻ ### Tier Three — Friction Zones Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain, Indonesia, China cluster mid-50s. Inflation stabilizing but growth inconsistent. Industrial cycles uneven. China's credit stability contrasts with slower expansion momentum. Europe's price normalization has not yet translated into durable acceleration. These require discrimination, not blanket allocation. ⸻ ### Tier Four — Fragile Conditions Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Argentina, Turkey rank bottom. Inflation instability and funding stress dominate. Composite scores reflect fragile price regimes and tighter financial conditions. These are short-tenor environments.
What Did Not Change
## Signals From January Germany and Japan show improving inflation positioning. U.S. growth momentum regained relative strength. China's relative momentum softened within peer group. High-inflation jurisdictions remain structurally constrained. No broad systemic liquidity fracture appears in January. Stress is localized rather than global. ⸻ ## What This Means Composite above 70 signals durable balance between expansion and structural capacity. Composite 60–65 signals stability with limited acceleration. Composite below 50 signals constrained conditions. More important than rank is divergence. Growth rising while credit tightens is unstable. Technology strength paired with weak policy stability invites volatility. Inflation stability without growth is stagnation risk. The value of the sheet is trend integrity over time. Tier migrations matter more than single-month positioning. January reads as: Selective strength. Contained fragility. No systemic break.
Names That Stood Out
**Key Monitoring Points** **Physical Indicators** - LME copper inventories - COMEX silver warehouse stocks - World Gold Council quarterly demand reports - Silver Institute annual deficit data **Demand Indicators** - Global grid capex growth rates - Data center power capacity additions - Solar installation annual GW additions - EV penetration rates **Supply Indicators** - Major copper project FIDs - Mine permitting timelines - Silver byproduct production trends
Boundaries
This analysis reflects physical constraint conditions as of February 2026. It is not an investment recommendation. **Tripwire Framework** Copper: Sustained >$6.00 with inventory compression Silver: Multi-year deficits >60M oz Gold: Central bank demand >800t annually **Forward Window** 2026–2028 represents elevated sensitivity as electrification intensity meets mining lag. Commodity cycles normalize through substitution, recycling, and capex. Timing determines convexity.
This is a personal log of market observations based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. No action is suggested or implied.