Scope
The session opens with broad participation but uneven conviction. Capital is active across multiple sectors, yet the dominant expression remains selective convex engagement rather than index-level trend confirmation. The market is not dormant — but it is still choosing where to take risk very carefully. What stands out is the coexistence of high CX activity with persistent Neutral and Pre-Convex states, suggesting capital is probing for continuation rather than committing to sustained directional exposure. This remains an environment of localized opportunity, not systemic resolution.
What Changed
Convex Structures Continue to Appear — But Without Synchronization Multiple instruments remain flagged as CONVEX or PEAK, yet the dispersion across sectors is wide. There is no dominant thematic compression resolving higher. This implies tactical convex plays are still viable, but they require precision — broad beta participation remains unreliable. Liquidity Quality Is Uneven but Not Deteriorating Liquidity metrics are broadly intact, with many symbols showing stable or improving LQ readings. However, the lack of follow-through into coordinated phase transitions indicates liquidity is being used opportunistically, not structurally. This raises the probability of sharp local moves followed by pauses rather than sustained trends. Pre-Convex States Are Stacking Quietly Several names sit in PRE-CONVEX or COILING conditions without immediate ignition. This is notable. It suggests energy is being stored, but capital is waiting for confirmation signals before accelerating. These are watch-zones, not chase-zones.
What Did Not Change
No Broad Index-Level Confirmation Despite pockets of strength, there is no evidence of synchronized CX escalation across indices. This keeps the regime firmly in selective risk expression, not trend expansion. Volatility Is Contained, Not Resolving IV percentiles remain mixed. Volatility is neither collapsing nor expanding aggressively, reinforcing the idea that this is still a positioning and probing environment, not a breakout phase. Sentiment Is Balanced, Not Euphoric Liquidity sentiment readings remain constructive but restrained. There is no fear spike, but equally no urgency to deploy aggressively.
Names That Stood Out
How We Interpret This This remains a precision environment. Capital is active, intelligent, and selective. The market is offering payoff for correct structure selection, not for broad exposure. Convexity is present — but it is earned, not gifted. The absence of synchronized ignition argues for: • Smaller sizing • Faster feedback loops • Willingness to step aside if follow-through fails This is a market that rewards discipline and observation, not prediction.
Boundaries
Bottom Line The pre-open setup suggests continued asymmetric opportunity without systemic confirmation. Convex structures exist, but they are isolated and fragile. Until coordination improves, the edge lies in selective engagement and capital preservation, not directional conviction. This is still a market to read, not to force. This note records observable market structure and capital behavior as of the December 30, 2025 pre-open. It does not: • predict price direction or timing, • recommend trades or positions, • imply sustainability, intent, or outcome. This is a personal log of observable market structure based on publicly available information. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. No action is suggested or implied.
This is a personal log of market observations based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a prediction. No action is suggested or implied.